Although London and the White House continue denying it, a New World Order has arrived. Bryan MacDonald, a journalist for the Irish Independent and the Daily Mail (UK), in a column on Sunday, pointed this out, saying "what's not being widely reported is the fact that the pillars of the old order have been crumbing for years."
While the carriers of the decrepit old order continue to deny the change, some within have realized this reality and said it out loud. For instance, at the Aspen Institute's "Washington Ideas Forum" on Oct 29, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, when questioned about the ongoing global chaos by the national correspondent for The Atlantic, James Fallows, said,
"I think we are living through one of these historic defining times. I think we are seeing a new world order, post-World War II, post-Soviet Union implosion, being built. There are many questions: What is the role of America in the new world that is evolving? Should we have a role? What is appropriate?"
MacDonald pointed out that the rise in importance of the BRICS and other emerging economies has major implications for global consumption, business, and investment. By 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Russia will have overtaken Germany, and India will outperform Japan. It also forecasts a fall in U.S. global share from 23.7 percent in 2000 to 16 percent by 2020. In 1960, the U.S. represented 38.7 percent of the world's economy. Conversely, in 1987, China scored only 1.6 percent, but at the end of this decade it will claim 20 percent. This is an unprecedented change in such a relatively short time.
"The IMF estimates," MacDonald writes, "that by 2015, four of the world's top economies will be members of... BRIC [sic]. China will replace the U.S. as top dog. This might already have happened; economic figures tend to lag behind economic facts. Italy, the sick man of Europe, is out of the top 10 and the UK is barely hanging on, although London is still promoted as a financial powerhouse. The only people who believe that anymore are little Englanders. The UK has become the Julie Andrews of geopolitics, a fading star that was once luminous. France is impotent, lurching from crisis to mishap and back again."